Break-even sales
Break-even sales is the monthly net sales at which a store covers its fixed costs and makes neither profit nor loss; it is fixed costs divided by the contribution margin ratio.
Also calledbreak-even point in sales, break-even revenue, store break-even turnover, sales needed to break even
Formula
Monthly fixed costs ÷ (Gross margin − Shrinkage rate − Variable cost rate)- Monthly fixed costs
- Rent, staff, the fixed part of energy, depreciation and the store's share of head-office cost
- Gross margin
- The share of net sales left after cost of goods sold
- Shrinkage rate
- Cost of shrinkage and count variance as a share of net sales
- Variable cost rate
- Costs that rise with sales: card fees, bags and packaging, sales-linked bonuses
Calculator
Enter your own figures and the result updates instantly. The defaults are the figures from the worked example below.
Result3.000.000 ₺
Worked example
How to read it, and what good looks like
Break-even sales is the answer to the question of how much a grocery store should turn over: there is no fixed figure, and each store is calculated on its own cost structure. The thinner the contribution margin ratio, the higher the sales needed. Even at listed chains the net margin is thin: 1.6 per cent at Migros in 2025 and 3.0 per cent at BİM in the first quarter of 2026.
The shrinkage rate comes straight off the denominator. In the example, when shrinkage rises from 2 to 3 per cent, break-even sales go up by roughly ₺176,000; holding break-even at the same level would need about ₺30,000 of fixed-cost savings. That is why shrinkage belongs in the same conversation as rent and staff when store profitability is discussed.
Compared with actual sales, it gives the margin of safety: (Actual sales − Break-even sales) ÷ Actual sales. A store whose margin of safety is shrinking is broken down into its shrinkage, rent and staff lines before any closure or format-change decision.
| Context | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| BİM net margin | 3.0% | Q1 2026, BİM interim report |
| Migros net margin (TMS 29) | 1.6% | 2025, Migros integrated annual report |
Where it misleads
- Mistaking gross margin for contribution margin: break-even calculated without shrinkage and sales-linked costs comes out too low.
- Forgetting head-office costs: if the regional and head-office share is not allocated, the store looks profitable while the chain loses money.
- Ignoring seasonality: monthly break-even is a single number; holiday and festival months are assessed separately.
- Using an old cost base under inflation: after rent and wage increases, break-even sales are recalculated.
Data you need
- Monthly rent, staff, energy and other fixed costs by store
- Store net sales and cost of goods sold
- Shrinkage and count variance records
- Sales-linked costs: card fees, packaging, bonuses
Mindpera products that calculate this KPI
Mind Ops
Run audits and performance across your grocery branches from one place, with a set of more than 100 KPIs. Audits, reporting and camera event tracking meet on the same screen.
Mind Cost
The cost of what you buy for the shelf and the cost of what your bakery, deli and kitchen produce are calculated on the same model; in both, where the gap comes from is visible line by line.
Mind Space
Maximise revenue by managing branch floor space and shelf metres flexibly against customer demand, with profitability as the measure.
Frequently asked questions
- How much should a grocery store turn over?
- There is no fixed figure; sales should sit above the store's break-even sales. Break-even is monthly fixed costs divided by the contribution margin ratio. For a store with ₺540,000 of fixed costs and an 18 per cent contribution margin, that is ₺3,000,000 a month. The sales target is set by adding the desired profit and a safety margin to break-even sales.
- How is the break-even point calculated?
- First the contribution margin ratio is found: the shrinkage rate and the rate of variable costs that rise with sales are deducted from the gross margin ratio. Monthly fixed costs are then divided by that ratio. With a 24 per cent gross margin, 2 per cent shrinkage and 4 per cent variable costs, the contribution margin is 18 per cent; with ₺540,000 of fixed costs, break-even sales are ₺3,000,000.
- How does shrinkage affect break-even sales?
- Shrinkage comes straight off the contribution margin ratio. In the example, when shrinkage rises from 2 to 3 per cent, the contribution margin falls from 18 to 17 per cent and break-even sales rise from ₺3,000,000 to roughly ₺3,176,000. Holding break-even at the same level would have needed about ₺30,000 of fixed-cost savings.
Sources
- BİM Q1 2026 Interim Activity Report (Turkish) — 2026-03-31
- Migros 2025 Integrated Annual Report (KGK archive, Turkish) — 2025-12-31